Section Contents

1. Introduction
2. Total Enrollment
3. Enrollment by Selected Student Characteristics and Control of Institution
4. First-Time Freshmen Enrollment
5. Full-Time-Equivalent Enrollment, by Control of Institution

Introduction

Total enrollment in degree-granting postsecondary institutions is expected to increase 8 percent between fall 2020, the last year of actual data, and fall 2030 (Digest 2021 table 303.10). Degree-granting institutions are postsecondary institutions that provide study beyond secondary school and offer programs terminating in an associate’s, bachelor’s, or higher degree and participate in Title IV federal financial aid programs. Differential growth is expected by student characteristics such as age, sex, and attendance status (part-time or full-time). Enrollment is expected to increase in both public and private degree-granting postsecondary institutions.

Factors affecting the projections

The projections of enrollment levels are related to projections of college-age populations, disposable income, and unemployment rates. In a combination of approaches from earlier editions, this edition uses a new two-stage approach in which final projections are estimated by calculating a weighted average of economic “model-driven projections” and “population-driven projections.” For more details, see appendixes A.0 and A.5. An important factor in the enrollment projections is the expected change in the population of 18- to 29-year-olds from 2010 through 2030 (table B-3 in appendix B). For example, figure 15 shows that the number of 18- to 24-year-olds—who make up the majority of postsecondary students—was 30.5 million in 2020 and is also projected to be 30.5 million in 2030.

Factors that were not considered

The enrollment projections do not take into account such factors as the cost of a college education, the economic value of an education, and the impact of distance learning due to technological changes. These factors may produce changes in enrollment levels. The racial/ethnic backgrounds of U.S. nonresidents are not known.

Figure 15. Actual and projected population numbers for 18- to 24-year-olds and 25- to 29-year-olds: 2010 through 2030

NOTE: Some data have been revised from previously published figures. Historical population data are from the U.S. Census Bureau and are estimates of the population on July 1 of the given year. National population projections are S&P Global forecasts produced in May 2021 with a cohort component model like that used by the Census Bureau. The model incorporates assumptions about fertility rates, survival rates, and net international migration from the 2020 Census Bureau projections, which were modified to take into account the demographic shocks of the previous three years.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Commerce, Census Bureau, resident population by single year of age and sex retrieved from National Population by Characteristics: 2010-2020 (census.gov) and U.S. resident population retrieved from 2020 Census Apportionment Results; and S&P Global Inc. Population service, May 2021 release (history through 2020 and forecasts through 2030). (This table was prepared April 2022.)

Total Enrollment

Figure 16. Actual and projected numbers for total enrollment in all degree- granting postsecondary institutions: Fall 2010 through fall 2030

NOTE: Data represent the 50 states and the District of Columbia. Degree-granting institutions grant associate’s or higher degrees and participate in Title IV federal financial aid programs. Actual data for Fall 2020 were not included in projection models. Some data have been revised from previously published figures.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS), Spring 2011 through Spring 2021, Fall Enrollment component; and Enrollment in Degree-Granting Institutions Projection Model, through 2030. (This figure was prepared March 2022.)

Enrollment by Selected Student Characteristics and Control of Institution

Figure 17. Actual and projected numbers for total enrollment in all degree- granting postsecondary institutions, by age group: Fall 2010, fall 2019, and fall 2030

NOTE: Data represent the 50 states and the District of Columbia. Degree-granting institutions grant associate’s or higher degrees and participate in Title IV federal financial aid programs. Persons with unknown age are excluded.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS), Spring 2010 and Spring 2020, Fall Enrollment component; Enrollment in Degree-Granting Institutions Projection Model, through 2030. (This figure was prepared March 2022.)

Figure 18. Actual and projected numbers for enrollment in all degree-granting postsecondary institutions, by sex: Fall 2010 through fall 2030

NOTE: Data represent the 50 states and the District of Columbia. Degree-granting institutions grant associate’s or higher degrees and participate in Title IV federal financial aid programs. Actual data for Fall 2020 were not included in projection models. Some data have been revised from previously published figures.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS), Spring 2011 through Spring 2021, Fall Enrollment component; and Enrollment in Degree-Granting Institutions Projection Model, through 2030. (This figure was prepared March 2022.)

Figure 19. Actual and projected numbers for enrollment in all degree-granting postsecondary institutions, by attendance status: Fall 2010 through fall 2030

NOTE: Data represent the 50 states and the District of Columbia. Degree-granting institutions grant associate’s or higher degrees and participate in Title IV federal financial aid programs. Actual data for Fall 2020 were not included in projection models. Some data have been revised from previously published figures.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS), Spring 2011 through Spring 2021, Fall Enrollment component; and Enrollment in Degree-Granting Institutions Projection Model, through 2030. (This figure was prepared March 2022.)

Figure 20. Actual and projected numbers for enrollment in all degree-granting postsecondary institutions, by enrollment level of student: Fall 2010 through fall 2030

NOTE: Data represent the 50 states and the District of Columbia Degree-granting institutions grant associate’s or higher degrees and participate in Title IV federal financial aid programs. Actual data for Fall 2020 were not included in projection models. Some data have been revised from previously published figures.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS), Spring 2011 through Spring 2021, Fall Enrollment component; and Enrollment in Degree-Granting Institutions Projection Model, through 2030. (This figure was prepared March 2022.)

Figure 21. Actual and projected numbers for enrollment of U.S. residents in all degree-granting postsecondary institutions, by race/ethnicity: Fall 2010 through fall 2030

NOTE: Data represent the 50 states and the District of Columbia. Projections for Asian enrollment and Pacific Islander enrollment are not available separately due to the limited amount of historical data available upon which to base a projection model (prior to 2010, disaggregated data on students who were Asian, Pacific Islander, and of Two or more races were not collected). Degree-granting institutions grant associate’s or higher degrees and participate in Title IV federal financial aid programs. Actual data for Fall 2020 were not included in projection models. Some data have been revised from previously published figures.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS), Spring 2010 through Spring 2020, Fall Enrollment component; and Enrollment in Degree-Granting Institutions by Race/Ethnicity Projection Model, through 2030. (This figure was prepared March 2022.) )

Figure 22. Actual and projected numbers for enrollment in all degree-granting postsecondary institutions, by control of institution: Fall 2010 through fall 2030

NOTE: Data represent the 50 states and the District of Columbia. Degree-granting institutions grant associate’s or higher degrees and participate in Title IV federal financial aid programs. Actual data for Fall 2020 were not included in projection models. Some data have been revised from previously published figures.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS), Spring 2011 through Spring 2021, Fall Enrollment component; and Enrollment in Degree-Granting Institutions Projection Model, through 2030. (This figure was prepared March 2022.)

First-Time Freshmen Enrollment

Figure 23. Actual and projected numbers for total first-time degree/certificate- seeking students in degree-granting postsecondary institutions, by sex: Fall 2010 through fall 2030

NOTE: Data represent the 50 states and the District of Columbia. Degree-granting institutions grant associate’s or higher degrees and participate in Title IV federal financial aid programs. Actual data for Fall 2020 were not included in projection models. Some data have been revised from previously published figures.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS), Spring 2011 through Spring 2021, Fall Enrollment component; and First-Time Freshmen Projection Model, through 2030. (This figure was prepared March 2022.)

Full-Time-Equivalent Enrollment, by Control of Institution

Figure 24. Actual and projected numbers for full-time-equivalent fall enrollment in degree-granting postsecondary institutions, by control: Fall 2010 through fall 2030

NOTE: Data represent the 50 states and the District of Columbia. Full-time-equivalent fall enrollment is the full-time enrollment, plus the full-time-equivalent of the part-time students. Degree-granting institutions grant associate’s or higher degrees and participate in Title IV federal financial aid programs. Actual data for Fall 2020 were not included in projection models. Some data have been revised from previously published figures.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS), Spring 2011 through Spring 2021, Fall Enrollment component; and Enrollment in Degree-Granting Institutions Projection Model, through 2030. (This figure was prepared March 2022.)

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