Section Contents

1. Introduction
2. Number of Teachers
3. Pupil/Teacher Ratios
4. New Teacher Hires

Introduction

Between fall 2019, the last year of actual public school teacher data, and fall 2030, the number of teachers in elementary and secondary schools is projected to decrease 5 percent (Digest 2021 table 208.20). The decrease is projected to occur in both public and private schools. The annual number of new teacher hires is projected to be lower in 2030 than in 2019 in both public and private schools. However, both public and private schools are projected to experience a decline in pupil/teacher ratios.

Factors affecting the projections

The projections of the number of elementary and secondary teachers are related to projected levels of enrollments and education revenue receipts from state sources per capita. For more details, see appendixes A.0 and A.2.

Factors that were not considered

The projections do not take into account possible changes in the number of teachers due to the effects of government policies. They also do not account for changes in hiring or retiring during the coronavirus pandemic.

About pupil/teacher ratios

The overall elementary and secondary pupil/teacher ratio and pupil/teacher ratios for public and private schools were computed based on elementary and secondary enrollment and the number of classroom teachers by control of school.

About new teacher hires

A teacher is considered to be a new teacher hire for a certain control of school (public or private) for a given year if the teacher teaches in that control that year but had not taught in that control in the previous year. A teacher who moves from teaching in one control of school to the other control is considered a new teacher hire, but a teacher who moves from one school to another school in the same control is not considered a new teacher hire.

Number of Teachers

Figure 6. Actual and projected numbers for elementary and secondary teachers, by control of school: Fall 2010 through fall 2030

NOTE: Data represent the 50 states and the District of Columbia. Since the biennial Private School Universe Survey (PSS) is collected in the fall of odd-numbered years, private school numbers for alternate years are estimated based on data from the PSS. Data for teachers are expressed in full-time equivalents (FTE). Counts of private school teachers include prekindergarten through grade 12 in schools offering kindergarten or higher grades. Counts of public school teachers include prekindergarten through grade 12. Some data have been revised from previously published figures. Mean absolute percentage errors of selected education statistics can be found in table A-2, appendix A.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Common Core of Data (CCD), “State Nonfiscal Survey of Public Elementary/Secondary Education,” 2010–11 through 2019–20; Private School Universe Survey (PSS), selected years, 2009–10 through 2019–20; Elementary and Secondary Teacher Projection Model, through 2030. (This figure was prepared March 2022.)

Pupil/Teacher Ratios

Figure 7. Actual and projected numbers for the pupil/teacher ratios in elementary and secondary schools, by control of school: Fall 2010 through fall 2030

NOTE: Data represent the 50 states and the District of Columbia. Since the biennial Private School Universe Survey (PSS) is collected in the fall of odd-numbered years, private school numbers for alternate years are estimated based on data from the PSS. Data for teachers are expressed in full-time equivalents (FTE). Counts of private school teachers and enrollment include prekindergarten through grade 12 in schools offering kindergarten or higher grades. Counts of public school teachers and enrollment include prekindergarten through grade 12. Some data have been revised from previously published figures. Mean absolute percentage errors of selected education statistics can be found in table A-2, appendix A.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Common Core of Data (CCD), “State Nonfiscal Survey of Public Elementary/Secondary Education,” 2010–11 through 2019–20; Private School Universe Survey (PSS), selected years, 2009–10 through 2019–20; National Elementary and Secondary Enrollment Projection Model, through 2030; and Elementary and Secondary Teacher Projection Model, through 2030. (This figure was prepared March 2022.)

New Teacher Hires

Figure 8. Actual and projected numbers for elementary and secondary new teacher hires, by control of school: Fall 2011, fall 2019, and fall 2030

NOTE: Data represent the 50 states and the District of Columbia. Data for teachers are expressed in full-time equivalents (FTE). A teacher is considered to be a new hire for a public or private school if the teacher had not taught in that control of school in the previous year. A teacher who moves from a public to private or a private to public school is considered a new teacher hire, but a teacher who moves from one public school to another public school or one private school to another private school is not considered a new teacher hire. For more information about the New Teacher Hires Model, see appendix A.2. Some data have been revised from previously published figures. Detail may not sum to totals because of rounding.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Common Core of Data (CCD), “State Nonfiscal Survey of Public Elementary/Secondary Education,” 2011–12 and 2019–20; Private School Universe Survey (PSS), 2011–12 and 2019–20; Schools and Staffing Survey (SASS), “Public School Teacher Data File,” 2011–12; “Private School Teacher Data File,” 2011–12; National Teacher Principal Survey (NTPS) 2017–18; Elementary and Secondary Teacher Projection Model, through 2030, and New Teacher Hires Projection Model, through 2030. (This figure was prepared March 2022.)

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