Section Contents

1. Introduction
2. National
3. State and Regional (Public School Data)
4. Race/Ethnicity (Public School Data)

Introduction

The number of high school graduates increased nationally by 11 percent between 2005–06 and 2012–13, the last year of actual data for public schools (Digest 2021 table 219.10). The number of high school graduates is projected to be 2 percent higher in 2030–31 than in 2012–13. The numbers of both public and private high school graduates are projected to be higher in 2030–31 than in 2012–13. The numbers of public high school graduates are projected to be higher in 2030–31 than in 2012–13 in the South and lower in the Northeast, Midwest, and West (Digest 2021 table 219.20).

Factors affecting the projections

The projections of high school graduates are related to projections of 12th-graders and the historical relationship between the number of 12th-graders and the number of high school graduates. The methodology implicitly includes the net effect of factors such as dropouts, transfers to and from public schools, and state-level migration. For more details, see appendixes A.0 and A.3.

Factors that were not considered

The projections do not assume changes or attitudes that may affect the high school graduate levels. For example, they do not account for changes in policies influencing graduation requirements.

About high school graduates

A high school graduate is defined as an individual who has received formal recognition from school authorities, by the granting of a diploma, for completing a prescribed course of study. This definition does not include other high school completers or high school equivalency recipients.

National

Figure 9. Actual and projected numbers for high school graduates, by control of school: School years 2005–06 through 2030–31

NOTE: Data represent the 50 states and the District of Columbia. The private school data for 2014–15, 2016–17, and 2018–19 are actuals. Since the biennial Private School Universe Survey (PSS) is collected in the fall of odd-numbered years and the numbers collected for high school graduates are for the preceding year, private school numbers for odd years are estimated based on data from the PSS. Data for 2005–06, 2008–09 include imputations for nonreporting states. Includes graduates of regular day school programs. Excludes graduates of other programs, when separately reported, and recipients of high school equivalency certificates. Some data have been revised from previously published figures. Mean absolute percentage errors of selected education statistics can be found in table A-2, appendix A.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Common Core of Data (CCD), “State Nonfiscal Survey of Public Elementary/Secondary Education,” 2005–06; “State Dropout and Completion Data File,” 2005–06 through 2012–13; Private School Universe Survey (PSS), selected years, 2005–06 through 2019–20; and National High School Graduates Projection Model, through 2030–31. (This figure was prepared March 2022.)

State and Regional (Public School Data)

Figure 10. Projected percentage change in the number of public high school graduates, by state: School years 2012–13 and 2030–31

NOTE: Data include regular diploma recipients, but exclude students receiving a certificate of attendance and persons receiving high school equivalency certificates. Some data have been revised from previously published figures. Includes graduates of regular day school programs. Calculations are based on unrounded numbers. Mean absolute percentage errors of public high school graduates by state and region can be found in table A-14, appendix A.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Common Core of Data (CCD), “State Dropout and Completion Data File,” 2012–13; and State Public High School Graduates Projection Model, through 2030–31. (This figure was prepared March 2022.)

Figure 11. Actual and projected numbers for public high school graduates, by region: School years 2009–10, 2012–13, and 2030–31

NOTE: See the glossary for a list of the states in each region. Data include regular diploma recipients, but exclude students receiving a certificate of attendance and persons receiving high school equivalency certificates. Some data have been revised from previously published figures. Detail may not sum to totals because of rounding. Includes graduates of regular day school programs. Mean absolute percentage errors of public high school graduates by state and region can be found in table A-14, appendix A.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Common Core of Data (CCD), “State Nonfiscal Survey of Public Elementary/Secondary Education,” 2009–10; “State Dropout and Completion Data File,” 2012–13; and State Public High School Graduates Projection Model, through 2030–31. (This figure was prepared March 2022.)

Race/Ethnicity (Public School Data)

Figure 12. Actual and projected numbers for public high school graduates, by race/ethnicity: School years 2005–06 through 2030–31

NOTE: Race categories exclude persons of Hispanic ethnicity. Data on students of Two or more races were not collected separately prior to 2007–08, and data on students of Two or more races from 2007–08 through 2009–10 were not reported by all states. Therefore, the data are not comparable to figures for 2010–11 and later years. Mean absolute percentage errors of selected education statistics can be found in table A-2, appendix A. Some data have been revised from previously published figures.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Common Core of Data (CCD), “State Nonfiscal Survey of Public Elementary/Secondary Education,” 2005–06; “State Dropout and Completion Data File,” 2005–06 through 2012–13; and National Public High School Graduates by Race/Ethnicity Projection Model, through 2030–31. (This figure was prepared March 2022.)

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