Public elementary and secondary school enrollment is projected to rise between 1995 and the year 2007, but growth will vary widely across the Nation (table 45 and figure 63). Enrollment will increase most rapidly in the Western and Southern regions, where public school enrollment is expected to rise 17 percent and 9 percent, respectively. An increase of 3 percent is projected for the Northeastern region, while a decrease of 1 percent is expected in the Midwestern region (table 46 and figure 64).
Over the projection period, public school enrollment is expected to vary across states. The Northeast will have enrollment increases in five out of nine states. Increases will occur in Massachusetts (6 percent), New Hampshire (2 percent), New Jersey (7 percent), New York (5 percent), and Rhode Island (4 percent). Decreases are projected in Connecticut (2 percent), Maine (8 percent), Pennsylvania (3 percent), and Vermont (0.3 percent). Over the projection period, enrollment will grow between 1995 and 2001 in most states, while it will decline between 2001 and 2007.
In the Midwest, enrollment will increase in only four of the states between 1995 and 2007. Increases are projected for Illinois (4 percent), Indiana (5 percent), Kansas (0.1 percent), and Missouri (1 percent). Decreases are projected for Iowa (7 percent), Michigan (3 percent), Minnesota (4 percent), Nebraska (1 percent), North Dakota (7 percent), Ohio (3 percent), South Dakota (4 percent), and Wisconsin (5 percent).
Enrollment increases are projected for many of the Southern states between 1995 and 2007. Increases are projected for Delaware (10 percent), Florida (9 percent), Georgia (16 percent), North Carolina (13 percent), Tennessee (10 percent), Texas (15 percent), and Virginia (11 percent). Smaller increases are expected for Alabama (7 percent), Arkansas (2 percent), Maryland (7 percent), Mississippi (4 percent), and South Carolina (6 percent). Decreases in enrollment have been projected for District of Columbia (7 percent), Kentucky (1 percent), Louisiana (3 percent), Oklahoma (4 percent), and West Virginia (8 percent).
All of the states in the West except Montana are expected to show increases in enrollment between 1995 and 2007. Increases are expected in Alaska (12 percent), Arizona (20 percent), California (22 percent), Colorado (11 percent), Hawaii (17 percent), Idaho (15 percent), Nevada (20 percent), New Mexico (16 percent), and Utah (14 percent) over the projection period. Smaller increases are expected in Oregon (3 percent), Washington (6 percent), and Wyoming (5 percent). Montana is expected to decrease by 1 percent.
Between 1995 and 2007, public elementary school enrollment in kindergarten through grade 8 (K-8) is expected to increase 3 percent. Increases in elementary enrollment are expected to occur in most states across the Nation (table 47 and figure 65). These expected increases in elementary enrollment are a reflection of immigration and the rising number of births beginning in 1977, rather than changes in the attendance rates of young children. The NCES projections do not account for enrollment increases that may be caused by changing state and local policies about the provision of prekindergarten and kindergarten programs. Expansion of these programs would lead to higher enrollments at the elementary school level.
Elementary enrollment is expected to show a decrease of 2 percent in the Northeast between 1995 and 2007 (table 48 and figure 66). Decreases are projected for Connecticut (7 percent), Maine (11 percent), Massachusetts (2 percent), New Hampshire (3 percent), New York (0.2 percent), Pennsylvania (7 percent), Rhode Island (3 percent), and Vermont (4 percent). An increase is projected for New Jersey (3 percent).
A decrease in elementary enrollment has been projected for the Midwestern region. Between 1995 and 2007, enrollment in the Midwest is projected to decrease by 4 percent. Ten of the twelve states in this region are projected to show decreases. These will occur in Iowa (8 percent), Kansas (3 percent), Michigan (6 percent), Minnesota (7 percent), Missouri (3 percent), Nebraska (2 percent), North Dakota (10 percent), Ohio (6 percent), South Dakota (4 percent), and Wisconsin (7 percent). Increases are expected in Illinois (0.4 percent) and Indiana (3 percent).
An increase of 5 percent is expected for the Southern region between 1995 and 2007. Increases are expected in Georgia (12 percent) and Texas (11 percent). Smaller increases are projected for Alabama (5 percent), Delaware (3 percent), Florida (2 percent), Maryland (2 percent), Mississippi (3 percent), North Carolina (6 percent), Tennessee (7 percent), South Carolina (3 percent),and Virginia (6 percent). Decreases are projected for District of Columbia (11 percent), Kentucky (2 percent), Louisiana (5 percent), Oklahoma (7 percent), and West Virginia (6 percent). Most of the growth in the states will occur between 1995 and 2001.
Elementary enrollment in the Western states is expected to rise between 1995 and 2007, an increase of 12 percent. Over the projection period, enrollment increases are anticipated for Arizona (13 percent), California (14 percent), Hawaii (16 percent), Idaho (16 percent), New Mexico (16 percent), Nevada (13 percent), and Utah (12 percent). Other enrollment increases are projected for Alaska (9 percent), Colorado (6 percent), Oregon (1 percent), Washington (3 percent), and Wyoming (5 percent). A decrease is projected for Montana (1 percent). Most of the growth in the states will occur between 1995 and 2001.
Between 1995 and 2007, enrollment in public high schools (grades 9 through 12) is expected to increase by 18 percent (table 49 and figure 67). Over the projection period, enrollment increases are projected in all of the regions.
The Northeast is projected to increase by 16 percent between 1995 and 2007 (table 50 and figure 68). Increases are expected in Connecticut (12 percent), Massachusetts (30 percent), New Hampshire (16 percent), New Jersey (18 percent), New York (18 percent), Pennsylvania (6 percent), Rhode Island (26 percent), and Vermont (8 percent). Maine is projected to decrease by 1 percent. Most of growth in the states will occur between 1995 and 2001.
The Midwestern region is expected to show an increase of 5 percent in high school enrollment between 1995 and 2007. Increases are expected in Illinois (11 percent), Indiana (10 percent), Kansas (7 percent), and Missouri (9 percent). Smaller increases are projected for Michigan (5 percent), Minnesota (3 percent), Nebraska (3 percent), and Ohio (4 percent). Decreases are projected in Iowa (6 percent), North Dakota (0.4 percent), South Dakota (4 percent), and Wisconsin (0.3 percent).
Between 1995 and 2007, public high school enrollment in the South is projected to increase by 20 percent. Over the projection period, increases are expected in Delaware (25 percent), Florida (28 percent), Georgia (27 percent), Maryland (21 percent), North Carolina (33 percent), South Carolina (16 percent), Tennessee (19 percent), Texas (26 percent), and Virginia (26 percent). Other increases are expected for Alabama (13 percent), Arkansas (5 percent), District of Columbia (8 percent), Mississippi (6 percent), and Oklahoma (5 percent). Smaller increases are projected for Kentucky (1 percent), and Louisiana (3 percent). West Virginia will decline by 11 percent.
The Western region's public high school enrollment is expected to increase by 32 percent between 1995 and 2007. Between 1995 and 2007 increases have been projected for Alaska (20 percent), Arizona (38 percent), California (44 percent), Colorado (25 percent), Hawaii (22 percent), Idaho (15 percent), Nevada (42 percent), New Mexico (17 percent), Oregon (11 percent), Utah (18 percent), and Washington (15 percent). A smaller increase is projected for Wyoming (3 percent). Montana is expected to decline by 1 percent.
Chapter 9
