Projections of Education Statistics to 2016 - Section 3. High School Graduates: Accuracy of Projections

Projections of Education Statistics to 2016

NCES 2008-060
December 2007

List of Tables
List of Figures
List of Abbreviations
Introduction
Section 1. Elementary and Secondary Enrollment
Section 2. Enrollment in Degree-Granting Institutions
Section 3. High School Graduates
- Introduction
- National
- State and Regional
- Accuracy of Projections
Section 4. Degrees Conferred
Section 5. Elementary and Secondary Teachers
Section 6. Expenditures of Public Elementary and Secondary Schools
Projection Methodology
Data Sources
Glossary
PDF & Related Info
William J. Hussar

Section 3. High School Graduates: Accuracy of Projections

For NCES projections of public high school graduates produced over the last 16 years, the mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) for lead times of 1, 2, 5, and 10 years out were 0.8, 0.9, 1.6, and 3.9, respectively. NCES projections of public high school graduates have been less accurate than projections of public elementary and secondary enrollment, but more accurate than projections of earned degrees by level. For more information, see table A-2 in appendix A.

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