Public elementary and secondary enrollment is projected to increase to 54 million in 2018. Over the period of 2006 to 2018, the South is the region of the country projected to experience the largest increase (18 percent) in the number of students enrolled.

In 2006, about 49.3 million students were enrolled in public elementary and secondary schools. Of these students, 34.2 million were enrolled in prekindergarten (preK) through grade 8, and 15.1 million were enrolled in grades 9 through 12.

Public school enrollment declined during the 1970s and early 1980s and increased in the latter part of the 1980s. Enrollment continued to increase throughout the 1990s and early 2000s. Between 2000 and 2006, public school enrollment increased by 2.1 million students, reaching 49.3 million students in 2006 (see table A-4-1). Total public school enrollment is projected to set new enrollment records each year from 2007 through 2018, reaching an estimated high of 53.9 million students in 2018 (the last year for which projected data are available).

Enrollment trends in grades preK-8 and 9-12 have differed over time as successive cohorts of students have moved through the public school system. For example, enrollment in grades preK-8 decreased throughout the 1970s and early 1980s, while enrollment in grades 9-12 decreased in the late 1970s and throughout the 1980s. Enrollments at both grade levels increased from 1990 through 2006. Public school enrollment in grades preK-8 is projected to increase from 34.2 million in 2006 to 38.2 million in 2018. Enrollment in grades 9-12 is projected to increase to 15.1 million in 2007 before decreasing to 14.6 million in 2011; it is then expected to increase again to 15.8 million in 2018.

Since 1970, the South has been the region of the country with the largest share of public school enrollment in the United States. However, the regional distribution of students in public schools has not remained static. The share of total public school enrollment in the Northeast and the Midwest decreased between 1970 and 2000 (from 21 to 17 percent and 28 to 23 percent, respectively), while the share for both the South and the West increased during this period (from 32 to 37 percent and 18 to 24 percent, respectively). The number of students enrolled followed a similar pattern between 2000 and 2006, decreasing slightly in both the Northeast and Midwest, but increasing by one-half million students in the West and 1.0 million students in the South. According to projections, by 2018, some 14 percent of public school students will be in the Northeast, 20 percent will be in the Midwest, 25 percent will be in the West, and 40 percent will be in the South.

From 2006 to 2018, public school enrollment in grades preK through 12 in the United States is projected to increase by 9 percent (see table A-4-2). The rate of increase in overall U.S. enrollment is not expected to be evenly distributed by grade level or among states. For example, enrollment in grades preK-8 is projected to increase more than enrollment in grades 9-12 during this period (12 vs. 4 percent). In grades preK-8, enrollment is expected to increase by more than 30 percent in Arizona, Nevada, and Texas, but to decrease by more than 5 percent in Rhode Island and New York. Projections indicate that enrollment in grades 9-12 will experience a wider range of percent change than enrollment in grades preK-8 between 2006 and 2018: enrollment in Arizona, Nevada, and Texas is projected to increase by more than 30 percent, while enrollment in Rhode Island, Vermont, and the District of Columbia is projected to decrease by more than 20 percent.

Technical Notes

The most recent year of actual data is 2006, and 2018 is the last year for which projected data are available. For more information on projections, see NCES 2009-062. Some data have been revised from previously published figures. For a list of the states in each region, see supplemental note 1.